Remember 2005, when the climate doom-mongers blamed global warming for hurricanes Katrina and Rita which caused so much damage in New Orleans, Texas and other US states that lie on the Gulf of Mexico?
They all said it was ‘A Sign’ that hurricanes would be much worse in future. Sadly for the eco-fundamentalists (but good news for everybody else) was that the hurricane seasons of 2006 and 2007 were among the mildest on record. Strangely, Greens did not say that 2006-2007 were ‘A Sign’ that global warming might cause fewer hurricanes.
But, the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – which few of the Green lobby actually seem to read - actually does say that global warming is likely to cause fewer hurricanes and cyclones!
Chapter 10 of the 2007 IPCC report – ‘Global Climate Projections’ – summarises the computer models that predict what will happen with tropical cyclone/hurricane intensity in future decades.
Naturally, with computer simulations, you can get pretty much whatever outcome you want. The surprising thing is that even the most extreme predictions for global warming over the next several decades seem to indicate that there will not be an increase in cyclone/hurricane activity at all.
Most computer simulations at the larger geographical scale of 50-100km (Yoshimura 2006, Sugi 2002, Chauvin 2006) seem to show that there will be fewer cyclones overall and in the North Pacific, a slight increase in the North Atlantic, but no overall increase in intensity. With a few different wind circulation parameters the same simulations show fewer weak cyclones/hurricanes and no increase in more intense storms. One of the models indicates increased rain with the same number of cyclones.
Two more computer models (Hasegawa 2005, Bengtsson 2006) indicate fewer and less intense cyclones/hurricanes, but again more rain with those that do occur.
Only when scientists simulated 80 years of increasing CO2 and a tripling of current levels of CO2 could computer models be made to predict an increase in the number and severity of cyclones/hurricanes by 2090.
So, next time a climate change “expert” tells you that global warming is causing an increase in the number and intensity of hurricanes and cyclones, tell them to read the IPCC Report and that for at least the next 75 years, global warming will cause fewer and less intense storms.
Get the IPCC 2007 Global Climate Projections from:
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter10.pdf
{ 0 komentar... Views All / Send Comment! }
Posting Komentar