Steve McIntyre is a highly knowledgeable chap who can engage, and does engage with the High Priest of Global Warming, James Hansen of NASA. In a recent post, McIntyre points out that Hansen's climate predictions are pretty ropey.
In 1988, Hansen made a famous presentation to Congress, including predictions from then current Hansen et al (JGR 1988). This presentation has provoked a small industry of commentary.
Such discussions have a long pedigree. In 1998, it came up in a debate between Hansen and Pat Michaels; Hansen purported to rebut Crichton, NASA employee Gavin Schmidt on his “private time” supported. It seems like every step of the calculation is disputed - which scenario was the "main” scenario? whether Hansen’s projections were a success or a failure? Even how to set reference periods for the results. I thought it would be worthwhile collating some of the data, doing chores like actually constructing collated versions of Hansen’s A, B and C forcings so that others can check things - all the little things that are the typical gauntlet in climate science.
Here is my best interpretation of how Hansen’s 1988 projections compare to recent
temperature histories.
So, Hansen's models consistently overestimate the amount of warming (A, B and C) by as much as 0.5 degrees C -- a huge amount compared to the actual, observed warming (GISS, RISS).
For the detailed disciussion, see http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2602
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